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Year and a half years were not easy for most economies around the world, to say the least. The United States will present growth year particularly weak 2%, China took last week forecast and expects annual growth of 7.6% only, countries in Europe have almost entirely negative growth (excluding Germany, that its growth minor) and developing economies other leading - engine of global growth - cut sharply the rate of rise in GDP. economies of the world are slowing down, and the bad news is that this trend is not going to get better. era of rapid economic growth, like we used to. Why? According to Richard Heinberg, author of "The End of Growth" roundtables and researcher world renowned energy and oil, everything begins and ends with energy.
To understand the thesis presents Heinberg, who is a senior member of the prestigious Research Institute Post Carbon, should go back to the beginning of the seventies of last century, when the United States became the world's largest oil exporter - importer of oil. Then the reason for the change was simple: oil began to run out. Two and a half decades later, in 1998, published sources roundtables in oil price forecasts in their barrel. global Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Department and the Geological Survey of America set all in the same year: 2020 will be the price of a barrel of oil at $ 20 a barrel and output worldwide will increase to 120 million barrels of oil per day.
But predictions are one thing and reality another. In 2004, when it was already clear that the predictions are not relevant, they have been fixed to $ 40 per barrel for a period of 15 years. Four years later, just before the crisis of 2008, the price of a barrel climbed to $ 147. The price of a barrel of oil is now somewhere around $ 90, while world oil production is about 83 million barrels of oil per day. Reality, it seemed, tells a different story on the global energy market.
In fact, the U.S. dependence on foreign oil today is so great that an increase of fuel price rises cents $ 1.4 billion to the state economy. "No technology can not change the fact that fossil fuels are finite quantity shrinking," says Heinberg.
He said Western leaders are afraid to tell citizens the simple truth and inevitability of the situation where we already roundtables are - the era of cheap energy has ended. "It's over," says Heinberg. "We are in the midst of a period of alignment producing fuels. While peak energy production, are also reaching a peak of economic growth, but the state now expects us a long way down - as long as we have no alternative to oil. Fact, innocent of economic growth as we know it. We simply refuse accept the reality. "
The thing is that few people want to hear what he has to say. His new book, The End of Growth: Adapting to Our New Economic Reality ("end of growth: Acclimatization new economic reality"), is not really long - sold. After all, the basic argument of Heinberg makes us all move uneasily Bcisano. "The recession that we are not to end a wonderful time of economic recovery," roundtables he writes. Who wants to hear endless growth roundtables is impossible? Which politician would dare to say that voters the real engine of life is a temporary solution began to falter?
But Heinberg explains enlightening roundtables conversation with "Kalkalist" growth process must come to an end, and more importantly - it has already ended. Global growth we continue to witness, particularly in developing countries, is no more Mars energy tank empty world. "Economic growth has been ended in 2008," warns Heinberg. "We just still refuse to understand that what worked in the past 200 years does not work anymore."
As mentioned, for Heinberg everything should be explained in terms of energy. "We are of course talking incessantly that we live in a resource subject to change, and oil is one of them, but his role in creating economic growth which we live, even leading economists do not understand. They think of it as another source of energy that feeds equation of free markets and forces market, but is much more than that. "
With dozens of enlightening data highlights Heinberg this understanding, the underlying economic growth to which we have become accustomed is cheap energy production. "Oil is a remarkable energy," says Heinberg, "is so concentrated energy, until now except nuclear power, which is not portable, of course - fuel oil is the most energetic known to us."
How did map energy sources before the oil came into the picture? In 1850, for example, about 65% of the energy in the United States were produced using domesticated animals. Oxen plowed fields, horse drawn carriages transport, the driving dog sleds were used. Slightly less than 20% of the energy derived from manual labor taxing human, while the rest of the energy came from fuels like wood, to heat. But in 1930 the energy picture has been completely changed: only 3% of the energy in America were created by manual roundtables labor, an additional 5% reached livestock and the remaining 92% produced from fuels, especially oil.
"In 1960, manual labor just disappeared off the map. Why? It's roundtables not because we're working less, it's just because fueled machines replaced manual labor and work of household pets, which is what created the conditions for economic growth in our wonderful human race in 200 years years. "
To understand this better, Heinberg gives an example roundtables from everyday life. "We are all travelers in our car every day. Now try to empty the fuel tank and push the vehicle over 45 km. Physical roundtables work that is equivalent to manual labor intensive ongoing period of 6-8 weeks. But in reality we get this value with minimal effort "
